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London wheat traded 50p down yesterday as bearish factors outweighed any bullish sentiment.
U.K exports continue to struggle with the estimated 900,000 tonnes by end of December, failing to put a dent in the exportable surplus, especially when wheat and corn imports are considered.
Despite better quality and a big crop, French exports to the end of September are down year on year (3.81 mmt v’s 3.94 mmt); better quality has helped north Africa exports but the big fall attributed to reduced Spanish business.
To add to the bearish woes, US wheat markets took a big hit yesterday down c. 20 cents, wheat hit resistance at $5.30.
USDA report due today, this may fuel the bearish argument of plentiful supplies and reduced demand (low export numbers).
Support for the wheat market had been coming from crop conditions in eastern Europe and the threat of El Niño, whilst these could be very bullish factors they are not yet a reality, the hefty supplies and low demand are fact, these are factored in with the carries forward.author: Joe Beardshaw