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London wheat was slightly up Friday but an indication of the lack lustre nature of wheat markets, old crop down 10p and new crop up 15p for the week.
US markets also had a negative week, especially corn and soya. Corn and soya have had a difficult trading year and ‘normally’ the commodities that lose have a reversal the following year, but this could be ‘bull desperation’.
The USDA put 2017 global wheat crop at 755 mmt and world stocks set to increase to 268 mmt, the sentiment remains strongly bearish but these numbers are factored in and it remains dry in the US wheat areas and the effect of La Nina is uncertain.
South America is a mixture of weather; Argentina needing to plant c. 6 million hectares soya in next two weeks but areas suffering from dryness or excessive rainfall again attributed to La Nina. Argentina is the third largest grower of soya and number one meal exporter.
UK barley has remained resilient, despite sterling gaining and more expensive freight, French supplies are cheaper; differential to wheat at season lows. New crop values fell c.£4 last week, sellers got desperate but it remains dry in Spain and could offer export opportunities, subject currency and Brexit negotiations. author: Joe Beardshaw