August 12th

Wheat yields are breaking records and are way above expectations…

As previously stated there is going to be a very difficult period for pricing wheat if it needs instant movement. The sooner you quantify the tonnage you have to sell, the better for you in terms of price.

There are several reasons why the market could go up after harvest, the main hope being the heat damaged French/Eastern European maize crop, but there are also reasons why a price recovery is not guaranteed. The Chinese decision to devalue the Yuan has written 2% off commodity values and the threat of their economy cooling is a sign that they will not be importing as much as anticipated, this means that Maize and Soya has less customers and reduces the fear of shortage.

On a positive note for price, malting barley has come into store in great condition and yields have been good, but Scotland has not enjoyed a warm sunny summer and their crop is looking backward and not likely to perform well. There might be a bit of extra demand coming for perfect Norfolk barley.

OSR is all but over in our county and the harvest is moving North into Lincolnshire and Yorkshire. When the harvesting finishes we believe the barn doors will be firmly closed on this crop so values should see improvement. The only dark cloud is the Chinese issue mentioned above and a reduction in Soya purchasing but the Soya crop has plenty of weather scares in it yet so we should see a rally.

Finally… Storage is a fundamental requirement to deal with production. Customers that cannot receive the produce at the time of need can blame the end user but it does not solve the problem for their farmer. Take responsibility for the storage/movement yourself and do not assume the eternal optimists view of sunny, dry harvests every year. You need to harvest, get the grain into the correct condition and store it or harvest and move immediately to a place that protects your price. Nothing other than the weather should hold up your harvest.

Author: Andrew Dewing