A powerful session driven by the combination of fresh Black Sea attacks and a bullish USDA report. London November 2026 surged £3.50 to £200.50 — breaking back through the psychologically significant £200 level — and Paris/Matif December gained 5.50 euros to €233.00. The safe corridor talk that had been applying modest downward pressure was comprehensively overridden by Ukraine launching fresh attacks on Novorossiysk — Russia’s deep-water port with 15.8 million tonne export capacity, 200,000 tonnes of storage and supply by both road and rail. Any expectation of a negotiated shipping solution has been set back significantly by this attack. Russia is expected to retaliate, further destabilising Black Sea export prospects.

A softer session ahead of today’s pivotal USDA report. London November 2026 fell £1.50 to £197.00 on a £4.25 intraday range and Paris/Matif December shed 2.75 euros to €227.50 on a 7.75 euro range. No specific bearish catalyst — the decline reflects pre-report long liquidation and book squaring rather than any fundamental shift. Today’s August WASDE is the market event of the week and positions are being trimmed ahead of publication.

A quiet, modestly negative session. London November 2026 eased 50p to £197.75 and Paris/Matif December fell 2.75 euros to €229.00. The market is consolidating at elevated levels with few fresh catalysts in either direction. An important distinction is emerging — the recent price rises have been driven primarily by logistics and supply chain disruption rather than production failure alone. Russia and Ukraine are both forecast to have large wheat crops, and traditional importers Turkey and Morocco have better domestic production this year. The problem is not that the wheat doesn’t exist — it is that it cannot move. Black Sea FOB prices from Russian and Ukrainian origin are actually lower, but transport is the insurmountable obstacle with the Black Sea effectively a no-go zone. Russia hit a foreign-flagged vessel in Odessa port yesterday — confirming that the physical risk to shipping is not receding.